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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 12th, 2016–Feb 13th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

New storm slabs continue to develop in the alpine and at treeline. Watch for conditions that change with elevation.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Expect 5-10 cm of new snow overnight combined with moderate southwest winds and freezing levels dropping down to about 800 metres. Saturday should remain cool with freezing levels below 1200 metres, with light precipitation and moderate southerly winds. Warmer air is forecast for Sunday bringing freezing levels back up to about 1500 metres combined with 3-8 cm of snow and strong westerly winds. Monday is the warmest and wettest day, precipitation amounts have dropped over the last few model runs, but expect 10-15 mm with strong winds and high freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. See MIN (Mountain Information Network) posts for avalanche activity during the last storm.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs are starting to develop in the alpine as 5-10 cm of new snow arrived on Friday. High freezing levels (around 1800 metres) has settled the upper snowpack and developed variable crusts due to overnight cooling. New surface hoar has been reported from the Coquihalla area, that may be buried down 10-20 cm. Conditions across the region are variable. Most areas have not had a freeze below treeline since the last wet storm. A crust that formed after a warm storm at the end of January is now down 50-80 cm. and it does not appear to "bridge" the early January weak layer in the Duffey lake area. This deeply buried persistent weak layer from early January appears to be isolated to the north of the region, and is now buried down about 50-80 cm. This layer continues to produce sudden results in snowpack tests and has been responsible for recent destructive avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The deeply buried persistent weak layer of surface hoar has been reactive during and since the last storm in the north of the region. There is a great deal of uncertainty with regards to the distribution and the likelihood of triggering.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 6

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs are developing with each pulse of wind and precipitation that moves in from the coast.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

New cornice growth may be fragile and fall off naturally or be easily triggered.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4