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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2015–Jan 17th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Give recently wind-loaded slopes a wide berth.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Expect 10-15 cm snow on Saturday with strong S to SW winds and the freezing level near 900 m. A second system is forecast to affect the area on Sunday, petering out slowly on Monday. Anywhere from 10-40cm snow is expected, with strong S-SW winds and freezing level around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered a size 1 wind slab on Thursday. Size 2 glide slabs were also reported to have failed naturally in the Skeena highway corridor. On Wednesday, naturally triggered wind slabs were reported at around 1800 m on N to NW aspects. Observations have been limited during the storm.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have redistributed the recent storm snow into wind slabs, and rain is saturating the surface of the snowpack to at least treeline elevations. Above treeline, a rain crust and a buried surface hoar layer 10-20cm below the surface have been reported. The mid-December crust/facet layer exists throughout the area where it hasn't been wiped out by recent avalanche activity. The November crust near the bottom of the snowpack is generally well bonded but may still be reactive in areas with a shallow snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are building and adding stress to the snowpack, especially at high elevations.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried crust layer is still on the radar. It could be triggered by wind slabs or cornice fall, or by the weight of a person in a thin or variable snowpack area.
Use caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5