Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 3rd, 2016–Jan 4th, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

You don't have to be an avalanche expert to submit to the MIN. If you've been in the mountains, the backcountry community would love to know what you observed!

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

On Monday expect a mix of sun and cloud and light southeast winds. On Tuesday and Wednesday, light flurries and moderate to strong southeast winds are possible. That said, there's significant model disagreement on amounts. Freezing levels should stay at valley bottom for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack surfaces are highly variable. Temperature inversions and solar radiation have recently come into play and a melt-freeze crust can be found on steep, solar aspects at treeline and above. On shaded slopes, 25-40 cm of storm snow from Boxing Day continues to facet, and new surface hoar has been reported at all elevations. In areas where recent winds have been light, shaded slopes will likely provide unconsolidated powder. In areas where winds have been stronger, reactive wind slabs may exist, especially in areas where the the slab overlies surface hoar buried by the boxing day storm.Professionals in the region are still keeping an eye on a few other surface hoar layers that developed throughout December which are now buried in the top 100cm. Although these layers may be gaining strength, they are worth keeping an eye on, especially on steep unsupported slopes at treeline and below. In colder and shallower snowpack areas watch for weak basal facets.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

With warming, and subsequent cooling, recently formed wind slabs have likely gained some strength. I'd remain cautious in steep unsupported lee terrain or in areas where they may overlie buried surface hoar.

Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A few surface hoar layers buried in mid December are becoming unlikely to trigger; however, some snowpack tests are still showing sudden results. Use extra caution on steep, unsupported slopes at treeline and below.

Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Carefully evaluate big terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3