Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Apr 16th, 2014 9:45AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A warm front will bring precipitation to the south coast on Wednesday night and Thursday. Unsettled conditions are expected for Friday before the next system reaches the coast on Saturday.Wednesday Night: Precipitation: 5-10mm, freezing level: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light-moderate SWThursday: Precipitation 10-15mm, freezing level: 1600m, ridgetop wind: moderate SWFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered flurries possible, freezing level: 1300m, ridgetop wind: light SW-NWSaturday: Precipitation 5-10mm, freezing level: 1800m, ridgetop wind: moderate-strong SW

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Cooler temperatures and good overnight recovery over the last few days have improved stability. Expect increased avalanche activity with warming temperatures, new snowfall, and moderate to strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is sitting on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m, and to mountain-top on solar aspects. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settled the upper snowpack, especially on solar aspects. Isolated wind slabs may still exist, although they are most likely gaining strength. Surface hoar growth has been noted on shady slopes at higher elevations, and large sagging cornices are becoming weak with daytime warming. The February crust/facet layer is now deeply buried 150-250 cm below the surface. This layer is mostly inactive at this time, but could re-awaken with extended warming, solar influence and large triggers like cornice fall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow may form storm slabs at higher elevations. Stiffer wind slabs are expected to form in leeward terrain features.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Rain at lower elevations will saturate and destabilize the upper snowpack. Loose sluffing from steep terrain features is possible, especially from human-triggering.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Apr 17th, 2014 2:00PM