Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2015–Feb 12th, 2015

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Although the forecast calls for mostly cloudy conditions watch for brief periods of sun that could increase the likelihood of an avalanche, especially on steep south facing alpine slopes.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Warm, wet and, windy conditions look likely to persist through the next couple of days. Thursday will see mainly cloudy skies producing isolated showers with a freezing level of 2500m and light to moderate south winds. This pattern will persist on Friday when the freezing level is expected to rise to 3000m and the winds becoming more westerly. A cooling and clearing trend is forecast for Saturday with scattered cloud cover expected and the freezing level forecast to return to 2000m accompanied by light west winds.

Avalanche Summary

Slab avalanche activity appears to have tapered off for now although small lose wet avalanches have been reported in steep terrain at lower elevations.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region around 50 cm of rapidly settling snow rests on the supportive rain crust from early February. Further north the crust is buried closer to 1m down. The bond to this crust continues to strengthen with ongoing warm temperatures. Southwest winds are forming new windslabs at upper elevations. The snow is moist below 2000m and wet below treeline.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A curst is buried about 1 m down. While it appears to be bonding well to the overlying snow it still could have the potential to produce a large and destructive avalanche. Significant warming or a collapsing cornice could trigger this layer.

If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.>The new snow will likely require a bit more time to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches should be most problematic at elevations below the freezing level where precipitation falls as rain.

Be very cautious with gully features.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2