Avalanche Forecast

High -

SUNDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, moderate to strong southwesterly winds increasing over the day, alpine temperature near -8 C, freezing level near 800 m.MONDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1-3 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -3 C, freezing level near valley bottom.TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -7 C, freezing level near valley bottom.

Numerous signs of instability have been noted in the snowpack over the past week, including whumpfing and cracking between 1700 and 2100 m, and two skier-triggered avalanches suspected to have released on the December 15 weak layer. Expect the potential to trigger persistent slabs to increase as the snow continues to settle into a cohesive slab.

A warming trend and small amounts of new snow are creating a dangerous slab above buried weak layers in some areas. Numerous persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack. Dry snow overlies two layers composed of weak and feathery surface hoar, with the deeper layer (December 15) buried 40 to 80 cm. This layer is found most often around and below treeline but has been reported as high as 2400 m. As the overlying dry snow becomes more cohesive and forms a slab, this layer has the potential to create easily-triggerable destructive slab avalanches. Where and when this will occur is tricky to predict and even professionals are scratching their heads about it. It is a good time for conservative decision-making.The snow surface is variable, consisting of dry snow on shaded aspects, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and wind effect in exposed alpine and treeline locations.Deeper in the snowpack ( 70 to 110 cm), a November crust is producing variable snowpack test results, from sudden fracture characters to no result. This layer is considered dormant but could be triggered where the snowpack is thin.Please share your recent observations through the Mountain Information Network.