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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2018–Jan 13th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

http://www.pc.gc.ca/apps/scond/Cond_E.asp?oID=30469&oPark=100205 Human-triggered avalanches are likely with several buried surface hoar layers. It's time for conservative decision making.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods today. Freezing levels climb to 800m with an alpine high of -8.0. Winds will be light from the SW.  Cold arctic air will be replaced by a SW flow on Saturday bringing warmer temperatures, strong winds and trace amounts of snow.  Freezing levels reach 1700m on Sunday.  Up to 20cm of snow is expected for Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

70cm of snow fell in the past week and settled into a slab over several weak layers. Jan 4th surface hoar is down 50cm and the Dec 15 surface hoar persistent weak layer is down around 100cm. The additional snow load has made these layers reactive. Snowpack tests show propagation potential with sudden planar results on the Jan 4 and Dec15 layers.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 natural avalanche occurred yesterday morning on the SE face of 8812 peak. A field team observed evidence of a slightly older widespread natural avalanche cycle while traveling in Connaught Creek drainage. A second field team felt a large whumph while descending through an open glade in the Hermit area.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A reactive storm slab sits atop the Jan 4 surface hoar interface. The slab is poorly bonded where the surface hoar is well preserved. If triggered, avalanches could step down to the Dec 15th persistent weak layer causing very large slides.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This interface has become reactive with the recent new snow loading. It is most prevalent around treeline or on sheltered slopes the alpine. These avalanches are especially dangerous in terrain trap features where debris can pile up quickly.
Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3