Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2018 5:54PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

ghelgeson, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Continued warm temperatures should allow the snowpack to further settle and stabilize, but small storm slabs in more extreme terrain may still be an issue. Watch for the odd loose wet avalanche on steep solar aspects in the afternoon too.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

This week will see a complete reversal in the weather pattern as warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected to dominate. Warmer air aloft will prevail as an off shore upper ridge pushes inland and the flow aloft switches from cold northwesterly to mild southwesterly. This warm dry period is expected to persist through Friday.TUESDAY: A few clouds in the morning, cloud cover increasing to overcast by the afternoon, Freezing level around 2700 m with alpine temperatures approaching +5 C, light southwest wind, no snow expected.WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level around 2500 m with alpine temperatures up to +5 C, light southwest wind, no snow expected.THURSDAY: Scattered cloud, freezing level around 2500 m, light southwest wind, no snow expected.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity was reported over the weekend, but we did get a great Mountain Information Network (MIN) report from Saturday. Warming temperatures on Monday may have initiated a round of natural loose wet avalanches as the formerly cold snow was introduced to heat for the first time.

Snowpack Summary

Two successive storms produced 40 to 80 cm of snow over the last week. On Monday temperatures warmed dramatically. As of 14:00 on January 1st the Deeks Peak weather station (1280 m) was reporting +2.5 c, Mt. Strachan (1420 m) was reporting +4 c. These warm temperatures combined with Friday night's rain event should allow the entire snowpack to settle and stabilize. Forecast warm temperatures through the week should allow for further settlement.Wind effect in the alpine has been widely reported but wind slab activity has been limited to isolated terrain features with one or more of the following characteristics; steep, unsupported and/or convex. 50 to 100 cm below the surface there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December. This layer has not produced much in the way of avalanche activity and is likely trending towards dormancy. Beneath the mid-December crust, the lower snowpack is generally strong and well settled.The snowpack depth is about 160 cm at 1000 m, 220 cm at 1250 m. Many early season hazards are still present at lower elevations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Aided by wind, time and warmth, the storm snow is settling into a more cohesive slab. For the most part, this slab is bonding well to the underlying surface, but don't be too cavalier with your decision making, warming temps may change its behavior.

Caution with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.Storm slabs could become more sensitive to human triggering as alpine temps approach +5 C Tuesday.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

Natural loose wet avalanches remain possible Tuesday, especially on steep sun exposed slopes. With all the new snow in the last few days loose wet avalanches could entrain considerable mass, especially in terrain traps like gulleys.

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2018 2:00PM