Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain on Thursday

Tuesday: Isolated flurries expected, winds light from the south and alpine temperatures near -12.Wednesday: Isolated flurries, generally overcast, winds light to moderate from the southwest and alpine temperatures near -11.Thursday: No precipitation is expected, winds light from the west and alpine temperatures near -12.

Recent reports indicate both natural and skier triggered avalanches to size 1.5 in wind loaded features.  Cornices have also been reported to be touchy in the north of the region.

In the last four days the north of the region received 30 - 50 cm while the zone closer to the Purcell Wilderness Conservancy received closer to 80 cm. A wind event from last week formed relatively deep wind slabs in the alpine. New snow combined with wind has formed fresh windslabs on the surface.  Cornices are also a problem at the highest elevations. The mid-pack is reported to be settling well. I haven't heard of any test results involving the late November surface hoar in the last five days. The early November crust, near the base of the snowpack has also been inactive as of late. It's important to note that professionals are still cautious about these lingering persistent slab problems, but the likelihood of triggering is low. Be wary of steep complex terrain with a shallow snowpack, where triggering a persistent weakness is more likely.