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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 24th, 2011–Dec 25th, 2011
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Purcells.

Check out the forecaster blog for more information on the current conditions.Merry Christmas!

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Expect flurries to taper early in the day, giving way to mixed skies. As skies lift, expect winds to pick up, but remain southwesterly. More flurries could develop late in the day with freezing levels reaching 800m. Monday & Tuesday: More weak disturbances will move through the region, giving mixed skies and localized flurries. Southwest winds persist. Freezing levels will slowly rise and could reach 1500m by the end of the period.

Avalanche Summary

A few small explosive triggered slides and some small natural events associated with reverse loading.

Snowpack Summary

There is about 25-35cm of recent storm snow sitting over the December 12 interface of surface hoar and facets. This new snow has been deposited into soft slabs on lee features in open terrain by the consistent winds. The interface between the new snow and older surfaces is surface hoar and/or facets from early December. This layer is gaining strength, but still remains within the threshold of human triggering where there is sufficient load/slab properties. Check out the forecaster blog for more information on this layer and how to manage it. Lower in the snowpack, the mid-layers are well-consolidated and strong. Near the base of the snowpack there are a few layers that have the potential to trigger with very heavy loads or from shallow spots. These include a surface hoar layer from early November, a crust/facet combo from October and the interface on steep glaciated terrain with snow that did not melt over the summer.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Predominantly on North through East aspects, but some localized northerlies have brought windslabs into unusual places.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Slab avalanches continue to be a concern on the December surface hoar/facet interface in northern parts of this region.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2