Avalanche Forecast
Regions:
Another shot of new snow and wind should refresh surface instabilities for Sunday. Wind loaded areas remain the most likely candidate for triggering an avalanche, but a more widespread problem may emerge as a buried weak layer reaches critical depth.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
We don't yet have reports of avalanche activity from Friday's snowfall in this part of the Columbias, but the mid-November interface described in our snowpack summary has been producing plenty of avalanches and signs of instability with each of the last couple of storms in our adjacent central Columbia region.
With a bit more new snow Saturday night adding to the snow settling on this layer, we may be reaching a threshold where instability begin to expand out from wind loaded areas to form a more widespread storm slab problem.
Please share your observations to the MIN!
Snowpack Summary
Another 5-10 cm of new snow should arrive in the region by late morning Sunday. The new snow adds to a settling 20 to 30 cm of snow from storms on Tuesday and Friday night.
The new and recent snow collectively overlies a variety of surfaces that formed mid-November, including weak surface hoar in sheltered treeline terrain, sugary faceted grains, a thin crust on steep solar aspects, or bare ground in wind-exposed terrain. In some areas this interface may present as a thin temperature crust that is more uniform across elevations and aspects.
Average snowfall depths are around 20 to 50 cm below treeline and 80 cm in the alpine.
Weather Summary
Saturday night
Cloudy with flurries. Moderate southwest winds.
Sunday
Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud. Moderate northwest winds easing over the day. Treeline high temperatures around -5 C.
Monday
Mainly clear. Light northeast winds. Treeline high temperatures around -8 C.
Tuesday
Clear, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Light south winds increasing in the afternoon. Treeline high temperatures around -12.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
A succession of storms has been burying a critical avalanche layer progressively deeper. Another round of snowfall Saturday night could be enough for a widespread storm slab problem to form over it. Deeper wind deposits in the immediate lee of ridgecrests and exposed terrain features remain the most suspect.
Avalanche hazard is unlikely anywhere snowpack depths have yet to overcome ground roughness like brush and rocks.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2