Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Initially watch for generally shallow new wind slab on lee easterly aspects but a wind shift on Sunday may transport new snow to westerly aspects beginning late Sunday morning. Fresh wind slab should mainly be found near and above treeline but may also form in the upper portion of the below treeline band. Fast moving loose dry avalanches are possible on steeper slopes in non-wind affected terrain.
Detailed Forecast
A low pressure system moving south along the Washington Coast on Sunday should produce light amounts of low density snow in the Olymipcs.Â
Existing weak surface snow in addition to new low density snowfall will be transported to lee slopes mainly near and above treeline. Initially watch for generally shallow new wind slab on lee easterly aspects but a wind shift on Sunday may transport new snow to westerly aspects beginning late Sunday morning. Fresh wind slab should mainly be found near and above treeline but may also form in the upper portion of the below treeline band.  Be aware that lower density snowfall received as the winds ease during the day on Sunday may obscure recently wind loaded slopes. Â
Watch for loose dry avalanches on steeper slopes in non-wind affected terrain. Be especially wary of fast running loose dry avalanches near terrain traps.Â
Storm slabs will not be listed as a primary avalanche problem on Sunday but watch for shallow storm slabs if new storm layers form a cohesive slab above weaker snow in specific terrain on Sunday.Â
Give cornices a wide berth when traveling along ridgelines and avoid lingering on slopes below cornices as they may fail at any time.
Snowpack Discussion
Weather and Snowpack
The most recent atmospheric river arrived on Valentines Day 2/14 forming the uppermost significant rain crust in our snowpack. A short period of fair weather on Friday 2/17 caused another surface crust, especially on solar aspects.
A mix of sun and light snow showers Tuesday to Friday has freshened the surface snow daily, with up to a few inches of snow daily at cool temperatures and generally light winds. Sun crusts likely formed on solar aspects.
After a mostly sunny start to Saturday, clouds increased in the afternoon with light snow showers developing.Â
Recent Observations
No observations have been received from the Olympics in the past few days.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Loose Dry
Release of dry unconsolidated snow. These avalanches typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. Loose Dry avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Dry avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Loose Dry avalanches are usually relatively harmless to people. They can be hazardous if you are caught and carried into or over a terrain trap (e.g. gully, rocks, dense timber, cliff, crevasse) or down a long slope. Avoid traveling in or above terrain traps when Loose Dry avalanches are likely.
Loose Dry avalanche with the characteristic point initiation and fan shape.
Loose dry avalanches exist throughout the terrain, release at or below the trigger point, and can run in densely-treed areas. Avoid very steep slopes and terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1