Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 29th, 2017 3:45PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Cornices.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The approaching storm has uncertain snowfall amounts and freezing levels. Keep an eye on localized conditions and be prepared to adjust your terrain choices if the hazard is higher than forecast.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday will be mostly cloudy and snowy. Precipitation amounts vary widely with different forecasts calling for anywhere between 7 and 18cm. Winds should be light from the North with freezing levels near 2200m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported today.

Snowpack Summary

Another 5 to 10cm of new snow in the past 24hrs. In sheltered areas there is now an average of 30cm of low density snow overlying previous surfaces. On solar aspects there are now various buried crusts. Wind slabs are present in the Alpine and isolated areas at Treeline. Moist snow up to 2200m late in the day. The middle of the snowpack is generally well settled and dense, while the base of the snowpack consists of over 100cm of depth hoar and/or facets. Natural avalanche activity has tapered off, but the structure of the snowpack continues to cause concern to forecasters for "low probability, high consequence" avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are present in the Alpine and isolated areas at Treeline. Though found on all aspects watch for thicker slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Due to the nature of the snowpack, forecasters still have very little confidence in larger terrain features, particularly in the Alpine. Full depth avalanches that could reach the end of run out zones are still possible.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Cornices

Cornices are more fragile during sunny or warm periods. A cornice failure could trigger a significant slab on underlying slopes.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger deep slabs.Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Mar 30th, 2017 2:00PM