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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2015–Jan 23rd, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

An incoming system is expected on Friday with strong SW winds, 30-40cm of new snow and freezing levels climbing to 2100m by Sunday.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Very little change in the weather pattern for Friday at this stage in the game and then on Saturday the forecast is calling for up to 30-40cm of new snow over the weekend (as of this date, this will change) strong winds out of the SW and freezing levels climbing to 2100m. Stay tuned for more details as we continue to watch this system.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Not a whole lot of change when it doesnt snow.  Widespread hard slabs in alpine terrain overlying weak facetted crystals and depth hoar.  At treeline there are two layers of concern, the Jan 16th SH layer which was found up to 2300m and is now down 20-30cm in the snowpack and the Dec 13th Crust which is down 40-50cm with a weak layer of facetted grains overlying it.  Generally, still looks like early season out there even though its the middle of the season...

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Be heads up for this layer around treeline and in sheltered areas. 
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 13th crust is down 40-50cm and is continuing to produce moderate results.
Avoid cross loaded slopes at or above treeline.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Hard windslabs are widespread in alpine terrain.  These are overlying a weak facetted base.
Caution around convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4