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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 16th, 2013–Dec 17th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected if the weather forecast comes true. Extensive wind loading is ongoing due to West winds in the 100km/h range. Conservative route selection is advised.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Up to 15cm of snow is expected on Tuesday with winds out of the west expected to reach 105km/h. Temperatures remain generally mild. By Thursday a clearing and cooling trend is expected.

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered avalanches up to size 1.5 have occurred in steep cross-loaded gully features in the past 48hrs. It is likely that these avalanches were triggered by intense wind loading.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10cm of new snow has fallen in the past 48hrs. This snow is being rapidly re-distributed by extreme winds out of the SW. Storm slabs are forming at all elevations and are touchy to triggering in lee and cross-loaded features. Some cornice growth has also been observed.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent snow and strong to extreme SW winds have created storm slabs at all elevations. These slabs are increasingly touchy especially at higher elevations, and are expected to get more pronounced with the incoming storm.
Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches could step down to the October crust (or the ground) and involve the entire winters snowpack, especially in shallow snowpack areas.
Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3