Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 16th, 2013 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected if the weather forecast comes true. Extensive wind loading is ongoing due to West winds in the 100km/h range. Conservative route selection is advised.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Up to 15cm of snow is expected on Tuesday with winds out of the west expected to reach 105km/h. Temperatures remain generally mild. By Thursday a clearing and cooling trend is expected.

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered avalanches up to size 1.5 have occurred in steep cross-loaded gully features in the past 48hrs. It is likely that these avalanches were triggered by intense wind loading.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10cm of new snow has fallen in the past 48hrs. This snow is being rapidly re-distributed by extreme winds out of the SW. Storm slabs are forming at all elevations and are touchy to triggering in lee and cross-loaded features. Some cornice growth has also been observed.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Recent snow and strong to extreme SW winds have created storm slabs at all elevations. These slabs are increasingly touchy especially at higher elevations, and are expected to get more pronounced with the incoming storm.

Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches could step down to the October crust (or the ground) and involve the entire winters snowpack, especially in shallow snowpack areas.

Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Dec 17th, 2013 2:00PM