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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 16th, 2020–Jan 17th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Good skiing in sheltered areas but the deep persistent problem is hard to forecast. Be thinking about the consequences of a large avalanche as you travel. Forecasters still have high uncertainty in many terrain features. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Light snowfalls will continue overnight and temperatures will become more seasonal. Winds are forecast to be just touching into moderate tomorrow out of the SW at the peaks but overall looks like a nice day. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed today but the light was poor in the light snowfalls. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of snow has trickled in over the past few days wit h the cooler temperatures. There has been some noticeable facetting and weakening of the snowpack in thinner areas also. The Dec 31st facet/surface hoar interface is being found up to 2300m down 50cm and produced moderate sheers today at treeline. Wind slabs should be expected in alpine areas especially along ridgelines and in gullied/crossloaded terrain that a skier may trigger. If these windslabs fail, there is a good chance they will step down to the weak basal facets and involve the entire snowpack. Be thinking about the consequences of a large avalanche as you travel. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Windslabs are still easily found in alpine areas and in isolated areas at treeline. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The weak basal layers have produced large avalanches of late. Be thinking about whats overhead and if it has slid this season or not. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5