Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 4th, 2014–Mar 5th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Expect avalanche danger to increase throughout the day as the winds, temperatures, and snowfall amounts increase.

Weather Forecast

The general trend for the next few days is for warming, precipitation, and SW winds. Specific amounts are uncertain, but the bulk of the storm should pass through the area Tuesday night, Wednesday morning. We may see 20-30cm of new snow, along with freezing levels spiking at 1300m and strong westerly winds.

Snowpack Summary

20-30cm of low density snow has buried a sun crust on south and west aspects and buried surface hoar will most likely be found in sheltered areas below tree line. In the alpine and tree-line, strong N and E winds from the weekend created wind slabs which were also buried. The Jan 28/Feb 10 PWL is down 1-1.4m under a cohesive slab.

Avalanche Summary

A notable natural cycle occurred early this morning, with avalanches up to size 3 running from steep gully features on all aspects in the alpine. This coincided with a spike in wind speeds. Backcountry users can expect to see natural activity increase as it continues to snow and as winds increase.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Soft slabs exist at higher elevations. They sit atop a variety of surfaces (suncrust, facets, wind slab), and have been touchy to human-triggering. As more snow falls and the temp's warm up, expect them to become cohesive and more reactive.

Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

The low density snow from the past 2 days will sluff fast and gain mass in steep terrain. Practice good group management and avoid knocking your buddies, or yourself, over by your sluffs.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

The suncrust/surface hoar layer down 1-1.4m is still producing hard, sudden results in snowpack tests. This indicates it is stubborn to trigger, but if initiated, it will propagate widely, producing large avalanches.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4