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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 23rd, 2015–Nov 24th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Today is the start of the Winter Permit System. A valid winter permit is required to enter Winter Restricted Areas. Know before you go!

Weather Forecast

A brief storm is rolling through the region today, bringing 15-20cm of snow, with freezing levels remaining in the valley bottom and moderate SW winds at ridge top. By Tuesday afternoon, cold Arctic air will have slid into the Columbia's, bringing northerly winds, clear skies, and cold temp's. The Arctic air will stick around for few days.

Snowpack Summary

Recent observations suggest that the ~1m of storm snow is settling and bonding. Surface hoar layers down ~1m and 1.5m are still a concern but becoming more stubborn and hard to find. On high elevation N/NE aspects, there is a weak facetted base.

Avalanche Summary

Several large (size 3) avalanches were observed on Rogers Peak, Swiss Peak, and Hermit Mtn. They appear to be deep releases (80-100cm), but the crowns were filled in slightly, so the exact timing of their release is possibly Saturday. Isolated soft slabs to size 2 were observed from steep, north-facing terrain on Mt MacDonald yesterday.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong SW winds in the last 24 hours have transported the recent storm snow and created wind slabs and significant loading in lee areas. Extra caution should be used when transitioning into wind affected terrain.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

On northerly alpine slopes, snow from early Sept was preserved and facetted forming a basal weakness. This may have been the failure plane on Swiss and Hermit Peak on the weekend.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 4