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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2016–Jan 19th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Overall avalanche danger is decreasing. However watch for rising temps and increasing winds which could encourage snow settlement and slab development.

Weather Forecast

A series of low pressure systems will track trough the area this week. Expect minimal precipitation today (1cm of snow) and mainly cloudy skies.  Freezing level will get up to 1450m today with Alpine highs of -5 and SW winds in the light range.  Another system is arriving Thursday and could bring 15cm of new snow.

Snowpack Summary

In the alpine up to 50cm of new snow sits atop the January 4th interface. This interface is surface hoar in protected areas, sun crust on steep S - SW aspects and loose facets at tree-line and below. Where wind-affected, storm slabs have formed in lee features. Storm snow is unconsolidated at lower elevations but slab properties are developing.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday 4 recent avalanches were observed in the highway corridor that were in the 1.5 - 2 size range. These avalanches were in very steep north facing terrain and involved only the recent storm snow. Backcountry reports came in of sluffing in steep shallow snowpack areas.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs continue to develop as warm temps, wind and snow settlement turn the upper 50cm into a cohesive layer. Slabs are most developed in exposed alpine ares. This layer was easily triggered in stability tests below treeline on surface hoar.
Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading could create slabs.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3