Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 16th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada rbuhler, Avalanche Canada

Email

New storm slabs are expected to become touchy on Thursday, especially in wind loaded terrain. Continually assess the bond of the new snow as the storm progresses and watch for signs of reactive slab formation. 

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

A storm system is expected to impact the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A break is then expected before the next system arrives Friday. 

Wednesday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Thursday: Snowfall 15-25 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Friday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1200 m. 

Friday night: Snowfall 20-30 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1300 m. 

Saturday: Lingering flurries in the morning, sunny in the afternoon, light to moderate variable wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a ski cut triggered a size 2 storm slab in the Sky Pilot area on a southwest aspect at 1600 m elevation which was 15-30 cm thick. In the North Shore area, ski cutting was triggering small loose wet avalanches. 

On Monday, natural storm slab activity up to size 2 was observed in the Sky Pilot area which was typically 20-30 cm thick. Around the North Shore, size 1 storm slabs were stubborn to trigger with explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Prior to Thursday's storm, 50-80 cm of heavy, moist storm snow from the weekend appeared to be bonding well to the underlying hard melt-freeze crust which exists at all elevations and on all aspects except for high elevation north aspects. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below this crust. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

The new storm snow is expected to form touchy new slabs, especially in wind loaded terrain. While the older storm snow appears to be bonding well to the underlying crust layer, it may still be reactive in isolated areas. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

Rainfall at lower elevations may destabilize the upper snowpack and loose wet avalanches are possible. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 17th, 2022 4:00PM