Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

A storm system is expected to impact the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning. A break is then expected before the next system arrives Friday. 

Wednesday night: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Thursday: Snowfall 15-25 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

Friday: Snowfall 5-10 cm, moderate SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1200 m. 

Friday night: Snowfall 20-30 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level reaching around 1300 m. 

Saturday: Lingering flurries in the morning, sunny in the afternoon, light to moderate variable wind, freezing level around 1000 m. 

On Tuesday, a ski cut triggered a size 2 storm slab in the Sky Pilot area on a southwest aspect at 1600 m elevation which was 15-30 cm thick. In the North Shore area, ski cutting was triggering small loose wet avalanches. 

On Monday, natural storm slab activity up to size 2 was observed in the Sky Pilot area which was typically 20-30 cm thick. Around the North Shore, size 1 storm slabs were stubborn to trigger with explosives and ski cuts produced size 1 loose wet avalanches.

Prior to Thursday's storm, 50-80 cm of heavy, moist storm snow from the weekend appeared to be bonding well to the underlying hard melt-freeze crust which exists at all elevations and on all aspects except for high elevation north aspects. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below this crust. 

• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
• As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.