Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Storm snow has settled more than expected but human triggering remains likely.
Avoid consequential terrain and be mindful of your overhead hazard at all elations.
Expect the hazard to rise near the end of the day during peak warming.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control using artillery at Rogers pass on Sunday night produced avalanches up to size 3.5.
Natural avalanche activity tapered off as storm intensity eased with no new natural avalanches observed on Monday.
Weather Summary
Additional moisture & elevated freezing levels continue until Friday.
Tonight Mainly cloudy. No precipitation. Wind SW 15-30 km/h. Freezing level (FZL)1500m
Tuesday Flurries/ Rain, 4 cm. Alpine high 2 °C. Ridge wind SW 25-45. FZL 2400m
Wednesday Cloudy, isolated showers. Trace precipitation. Alpine low 0 °C. Wind SW 15-25. FZL 3000m
Thursday Wet snow mixed with rain, 17 cm. Light wind gusting to 35. FZL 2700m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Aprrox. 25cm of snow arrived on Sunday with warm temperatures creating a widespread storm slab which will be reactive to human triggers. Storm slabs will be most reactive in terrain exposed to the SW winds or at lower elevations where rain or warm temperatures have created a more cohesive slab.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Loose Wet
Wet loose avalanches will be likely at lower elevations during periods of rain or late in the day during peak warming.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
A persistent weak layer (PWL), buried March 5th, is now down 60-120cm in the snowpack. Depending on aspect and elevation, this layer may be suncrust, facets and/or surface hoar.
Wet loose or storm slab avalanches may step down to this layer resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2.5 - 4