Summary
Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Thursday: Expect the clouds to dissipate through the day, with a chance of flurries tapering into the evening. Winds should be light westerlies with temperatures reaching -6. Friday & Saturday: Clouds rebuild bringing intermittent flurries giving as much as 10cm each day. Winds in front of this disturbance will turn westerly. Expect daytime highs of -4.
Avalanche Summary
no new avalanches
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm of new snow has fallen since the 10th of December. This overlies surface hoar, surface facets, old windslabs and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). Winds have been sporadic in this period, with some strong northerlies intermingled with the more dominant light to moderate westerlies. There are isolated new soft slabs in immediate lee locations and some surface sluffing in more protected areas where the surface hoar is more prominent. Moving forward, the avalanche danger will increase as the load increases (either by new snow or wind). Be locally aware of changes and if obvious signs of instability are present (cracking, whumphing, recent activity on adjacent slopes) or rapid loading is taking place (heavy snowfall or strong winds) then scale down your terrain choices accordingly.Deeper in the snowpack there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m and some faceting (weakening) has been observed around the crust. Deeper still, the early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche.
mpeter,
Avalanche Canada
