Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 26th, 2014–Dec 27th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Columbia.

Conservative decision making and disciplined terrain use is the name of the game when these tricky avalanche conditions persist. Check out the new Forecaster Blog @ avalanche.ca.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A weak system will slide down the coast and start to affect the Interior on Saturday bringing mostly light snowfall amounts up to 10 cm. Ridgetop winds will be light-moderate from the west, switching to a northerly flow by Sunday. Alpine temperatures will hover around -15 and drop to -18 later Sunday. Conditions will remain cold and dry through Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has tapered off and skier/ rider triggered avalanches are the name of the game. On Wednesday, numerous skier triggered avalanches up to 1.5 were reported and I expect this to continue through the weekend. Remote triggering from a distance is still a concern.

Snowpack Summary

In some parts of the region a thin breakable rime crust exists near the surface. The upper 40-90 cm of storm snow  is slowly consolidating into a slab above a touchy surface hoar layer buried mid-December. Below 2100 m this slab sits on a thick, solid crust/ surface hoar combo and acting as a perfect sliding layer. Persistent slabs will be touchy to the weight of a skier and rider, especially in wind effected areas where the slab is stiffer. Deeper in the snowpack is a hard rain crust with facets from early November. This is buried over 1 m down and is currently unreactive but triggering from shallow rocky, unsupported terrain remains a concern.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

A very touchy surface hoar layer is buried by a 40-90 cm thick persistent slab. This layer is widespread, and is easily triggered by skiers and riders. Remote triggering with wide propagation is a concern.
Stick to simple terrain, small features with limited consequence and be aware of what is above you at all times.>Use conservative route selection, dig down and test weak layers before committing to anything.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5