Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Mar 29th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet, Wet Slabs and Wind Slabs.
jonas hoke,
Avalanche danger will increase with daytime warming, and spike quickly if it starts to rain mid-day.
Start your day early, and be ready to scale back your exposure as soon as the surface crust breaks down.
Summary
Weather Forecast
A cold front Weds brings light precip followed by cooling temps
Tonight: Increasing cloud. Alpine Low -3*C, Freezing level (FZL) 800m
Wed: Scattered flurries/rain showers (5-10cm/mm), High -2*C, FZL 2000m, light SW ridgetop winds
Thur: Isolated flurries, Low -10*C, High -7*C, FZL 1200m, moderate W wind
Fri: Mainly cloudy, Low -9*C, High -5*C, FZL 1500m
Snowpack Summary
Diurnal temp swings control the upper snowpack - fast travel on a crust in the AM, sticky wet snow in the PM (scale back terrain use for the latter). Recent slab avalanches have failed in the upper snowpack, near the base on the the Dec. 1st crust/facet combo, and on the ground. On high N aspects, 20cm of dry snow has formed pockets of slab.
Avalanche Summary
Daytime warming Tuesday triggered a natural cycle of large to very large avalanches, and heli bombing also produced several size 2-3 results.
Rain Monday triggered a large-very large natural cycle, and allowed for good artillery control results (up to size 3.5).
Glide cracks have been reactive recently, avoid exposure to these unpredictable features.
Confidence
Problems
Loose Wet
Warm temps and rain have weakened the low elevation snowpack. Cool temps in the morning will temporarily pause this problem, but daytime warming will reignite this issue each day.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wet Slabs
Wet slabs have been failing in the upper snowpack, as well as on the deeply buried Dec. 1st layer.
Full depth glide avalanches have been occurring recently as well.
- Daytime warming/rain will weaken surface layers.
- If triggered, loose wet sluffs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
New snow, moderate SW winds, and mild temps are the perfect combination for forming fresh wind slabs in the alpine. Expect to find potentially reactive slabs if you can get to higher elevations.
- Use caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Mar 30th, 2022 4:00PM
