Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 18th, 2024 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Avalanche Canada MM, Avalanche Canada

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Watch for fresh wind-slabs at ridge top especially on south through west aspects.

Use cautious route-finding and conservative decision making while giving the new snow time to stabilize.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thursday, there was a close call and a skier triggered a size 2 avalanche on a S/SW aspect and was able to self arrest.

Wednesday there was a widespread natural cycle triggered by the wind.

Tuesday, there was a skier triggered avalanche on the steep west aspect of Cheops.

Earlier in the week, there were more reports of skier accidentals on the Jan 3rd crust. *All skier triggered avalanches failed on a suncrust.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong northerly winds have redistributed the recent 10-20cms of storm snow. Beneath this recent storm snow is a layer of harder wind affected snow sitting on a sun crust on solar aspects.

In sheltered areas below treeline this new snow is evenly distributed and sitting on facets.

Below 2100m there is a crust down 70-80cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 90-120cm and is decomposing. However, it is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

A short lived break of high pressure makes way for warming temps & moderate snowfall. Weak high pressure builds on Sunday.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy, Low -14°C, Light SE wind.

Friday: 11cm, High -4°C, Light South wind, Freezing level (Fz Lvl) 1200m

Sat: 6cm, High -1°C, Light SW wind, Fz Lvl 1700m

Sun: Trace precip, High -2°C, Light SW wind, Fz Lvl 1700m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Fresh snow with wind has created a new storm slab problem. North winds and valley bottom gap winds have created slabs in non-typical places, heads up! Expect the new slab to be most reactive on south and west aspects where buried crusts exist.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

An icon showing Loose Dry

The new low density snow falls on a sugary layer that was created in the deep freeze. This a perfect combo for sluffs and loose dry avalanches running fast & heavy.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 19th, 2024 4:00PM

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