Avalanche Forecast

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

Monday we will be the 2nd day in a row with a poor overnight refreeze. Many small loose wet avalanches have run their course but with every consecutive day of sun, warmth, and meltwater entering the snowpack, nearly all aspects and elevation bands have the potential for large wet snow avalanches.

For loose wet avalanches, monitor changes in the upper snowpack, looking for natural pinwheels or small loose wet avalanches as clear signs of increasing danger. As the loose wet hazard increases, change your aspect and avoid similar slopes. 

Wet slab avalanches are a different story. You may not see direct signs of instability prior to a wet slab release. As the day progresses, deal with the uncertainty surrounding this dangerous and hard to predict avalanche problem by avoiding terrain where avalanches can run, start or stop. In the same vein, steer clear of traveling on or below cornices. Many have melted back but sunny skies and warm daytime temperatures will stress cornices once again.

Recent avalanches

NPS rangers reported that a small slab avalanche released naturally on a layer of buried surface hoar roughly 4-8 inches below the snow surface Saturday afternoon on a north aspect at 5200'. It's becoming less likely and harder to find, but this layer may be still reactive on steep and shady aspects at higher elevations.  

Forecast schedule

For the 2018-19 winter season, avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays.

During the week, No Rating will be issued but forecasts will include expected conditions and relevant travel advice. While this avalanche forecast is focused on backcountry avalanche conditions expected in the Hurricane Ridge area, we want to hear about your observations from other parts of the Olympics as well.

March 14, 2019

It’s starting to feel a lot like spring. The sun is stronger. Temperatures are warmer. The days are longer. Each year March brings a period of transition for the snowpack. Despite the feel of spring, this transition could take quite a while. Right now, its still winter in the mountains and most of the snowpack is cold and dry.

A northeast through southeast facing bowl in Tunnel Creek, Stevens Pass. The red line shows the transition from northeast to east aspects. Crusts were on the surface of east aspects (right of the line). Surface snow on northeast was soft and dry. March 11th, 2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Aspect dependent snowpacks

A common trend this time of year is the distinct difference between snowpacks on shaded slopes and those on sunny slopes. We might refer to this as aspect dependent snowpacks. The strong March sun can create crusts and send melt-water through the snowpack on sunny slopes.

That process is beginning, right now. As of the 14th, sun-exposed aspects have a crust at the surface. Otherwise, these slopes hold mostly dry layers in the upper 3 feet of snow. The sun now affects more aspects than in the earlier half of the winter. You may find sun affected and melt-freeze crust on any slope that received direct or indirect sunshine. This could include some northwest or even northeast aspects.

Shaded slopes are still holding onto cold winter like snowpacks. That doesn’t mean you won’t find any melt-forms in these areas, but the snowpack looks, feels, and acts more like mid-winter. Avalanche problems can follow a similar trend by aspect. You may see wet avalanche problems on sunny aspects and lingering dry slab problems on shaded slopes.

Two photos taken on March 10th in the Snow Lake area. The left is N facing terrain on Chair Peak with cold, dry surface snow. The right photo shows loose wet avalanches on E facing slopes of Mount Roosevelt. Photo: Ian Nicholson

Balancing problems

So, how do we balance these sometimes opposing snowpacks? In a word, observations. Transitional periods like this require diligence and planning. It seems obvious, but observations you make on a south-facing slope aren’t applicable to N facing terrain. Consider this as you plan your day. Secondly, you’ll want to make observations to verify the avalanche forecast. As we’ve discussed, snowpack structures can diverge during these transitional periods. When your observations line-up with the information you find in the daily avalanche forecast, the forecast is likely valid. If you see observations that don’t match, it’s time to stop, reevaluate, and possibly choose more conservative terrain options.

Making snowpack observations to verify the forecast. Photo: Pete Durr

Less elevated danger and changing trends

You may not find low avalanche danger on every avalanche forecast, but spring is a time of year when less significant hazards can allow backcountry travelers to explore deeper into the mountains. The longer days and often lower avalanche hazard can support stepping into bigger terrain. Remember that low danger doesn’t mean "no danger." Additionally, avalanche conditions can change quickly during spring due to rapid warming over the course of a day or snowfall from potent storms.

We forecast for very large regions. You travel on individual slopes. You may encounter anomalies in the landscape where conditions don’t match the forecast. As with any time you travel in snowy mountains, you can stay safe by using standard travel protocols to minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain and the hazards of the day. Keep your eyes open and be ready to adapt to changing conditions.

What's next?

Winter is far from over. Keep checking the forecast, tracking conditions, making observations, and telling us what you find.