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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2013–Feb 12th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Weather Forecast

We will see increasing cloud today as a frontal system enters the region. Expect light flurries,  alpine temps just below -10, and moderate westerly winds. On Tuesday we expect 5-10cm of snow with strong westerly winds intensifying loading.  On Wednesday, the clouds should start to clear again with temperatures dropping to -20 in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

A new sun crust will have formed on steep solar aspects yesterday. In the upper snowpack, layers down 40 (crust) and 80 (crust on solar and large stellars/ pockets of surface hoar elsewhere) have been reactive to ski cutting on steep unsupported features in Rogers Pass, and in the surrounding region caused several human triggered size 2 avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, there was a widespread avalanche cycle. They were loose avalanches size 1.5 to 2.5, on solar aspects, triggered by strong sunshine. On Saturday, skiers triggered size 1.5 slab avalanches on the SE face of 8812. Recent natural avalanches on N and E aspects have been size 2-2.5 and triggered by loading due to steady moderate SW winds.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Steady winds continue to transport snow and trigger natural avalanches from steep lee slopes. Isolated pockets of wind slab will have formed immediately below ridgecrests; most likely in serious terrain where a ride would have severe consequences.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Last weeks snow has settled into a slab. The layers of concern below vary by aspect, but are most likely to be triggered on steep southerly aspects where buried crusts exist. The slab is stubborn to trigger but large avalanches are possible.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.Choose regroup spots carefully.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3