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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 10th, 2017–Apr 11th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kananaskis.

Forecasted snowfall amounts are highly varied. Keep a close eye on localized conditions. Hazard levels will increase with more snow load and moderate winds.

Confidence

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy, but precipitation forecasts vary considerably. Some models show 2 to 3cm of snow, while others are calling for up to 25cm. Winds will be moderate from the East, with Alpine temperatures near -6 °C. Precipitation amounts continue to be inconsistent for the remainder of the week.

Avalanche Summary

A few loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 observed in the Alpine today, primarily in steep un-skiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

An additional 10cm of new snow at Treeline overnight. This sits on a supportive crust on solar aspects and on all aspects below 2100m. On sheltered polar aspects above 2100m recent snow falls now sit at 25 to 30cm, which sluffs easily with ski cutting in steep terrain. Isolated pockets of wind slab were observed in the Alpine. Surface snow was moist by late morning on direct solar aspects at 2500m, and at lower elevations moist snow was observed on all aspects. The basal facets are still lurking and have produced moderate sudden collapse shears in recent stability tests. Despite it starting to look like spring, the snowpack in the Alpine is still very much winter like. Remember any slope that hasn't yet released has the potential to fail deep in the snowpack resulting in a large avalanche.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Renew your respect for this layer as the new loading ramps up. We are unsure of how it will handle any additional load. Alpine wind loading and cornice failure is particularly concerning.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger deep slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Storm Slabs

An up-slope storm may drop as much as 25cm in the region with moderate winds. If this occurs, fresh storm slabs will develop on all aspects and they will likely be easy to trigger. Forecasted precipitation amounts are uncertain.
Keep an eye out for reverse loading created by an upslope storm.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Dry

Expect heavy sluffing in steep terrain on all aspects if the forecasted storm comes true.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2