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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 10th, 2015–Dec 11th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A natural avalanche cycle is subsiding, but human-triggering is still likely. The Dec 4th weak layer is highly variable in it's distribution and requires careful evaluation before choosing a route.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

Friday will be mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine temperature should reach a high of -6 C, with ridge-top winds out of the west at 15-30 km/h. Windy conditions expected on Saturday with a chance of some sunny breaks.

Avalanche Summary

Several naturally triggered storm slabs have occurred in the past 48hrs on N, NE and E aspects generally between 2700m and 2100m. These slides averaged 50cm in depth and ranged from size 1.5 to 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Storm slabs are present in lee and cross-loaded terrain at Treeline and above. These slabs sit on the Dec 4th weak layer (consists of surface hoar, sun crust or facets) down 35 to 45cm, and still appear to be sensitive to triggering. The distribution and fracture potential of the Dec 4th weak layer is highly variable. Some cornice growth has occurred in typical locations.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs up to 50cm deep sitting on top of the Dec 4th interface are found in the Alpine and at Treeline in lee and cross-loaded features. Recent avalanche activity on this layer has occurred in the past 48hrs.
Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.>Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4