Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Sunday night: Clear, light southeast winds, alpine temperature -14 C.

Monday: Clear, light variable winds, alpine high temperature -1 C, pockets of warm air bringing freezing level to 2200 m in the southern half of the region.

Tuesday: Clear, light east winds, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level 1000 m. 

Wednesday: Increasing cloud, alpine high temperature -1 C, freezing level 800 m. 

Avalanches are expected to become more reactive with rising freezing levels and intense solar radiation.

On Saturday, there were multiple reports of large (size 2-2.5) cornices failing naturally. Several of these cornice falls triggered slabs on slopes below, and one triggered a deep slab avalanche releasing on weak snow near the ground.  

Over the past several days, large (size 2) human-triggered avalanches have been reported releasing in a drifted snow/weak interface combination and breaking 20-80 cm deep. These avalanches primarily occurred on leeward features above 1400 m. 

Last week, there were reports of large (size 2-2.5) human-triggered avalanches failing on the March 1st surface hoar layer. Over the past two weeks, avalanches have been reported on an earlier surface hoar layer from February 19th as well as a deep persistent slab failing on basal facets. This pattern highlights how shallow avalanches in the surface snow have the potential to strain multiple weak layers in the snowpack and release larger avalanches.

Temperatures are rising with intense solar radiation. In the southern half of the region near Smithers, pockets of above freezing air are forecast up to 2200 m on Monday. This warm-up is expected to rapidly destabilize surface snow and cornices as well as add significant strain to buried weak layers. Cornices have grown large with the recent weather, and a cornice failure has the potential to release very large avalanches on slopes below.

Over the past few days, strong easterly winds drifted the 15-30 cm of recent snow into wind slabs in a reverse-loading pattern (check out this MIN from HBMR). Wind slabs will likely be more reactive where this snow rests on a weak layer of surface hoar and/or a crust on solar aspects.  

Loading from new snow and wind has made several deeper weak layers problematic over the past week. A surface hoar layer from March 1st may be found 40-80 cm deep, and another combination of surface hoar and sun crust from February 19 may sit 60-90 cm deep. These layers seem to be most sensitive to human triggering at treeline elevations. 

A couple of weak layers that formed in January are buried in close proximity to one another 80-140 cm below the surface. Below that, an early season crust/facet layer lurks at the base of the snowpack. The warming weather may have the potential to re-awaken these deeper layers.

• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
• Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a deep persistent slab.