Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 14th, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
kdevine,
Avalanche Canada
Some new snow and strong to extreme winds are expected to form fresh wind slabs. Look for low-angle slopes in sheltered terrain for the best, and safest riding.
Summary
Confidence
Weather Forecast
THURSDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind, 50-80 km/h, gusting to 100 km/h / alpine low temperature near -5
FRIDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / southeast wind, 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 1000 m
SATURDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 3-5 cm / southwest wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -3 / freezing level 800 m
SUNDAY - Cloudy with flurries, 3-5 cm / southwest wind, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1200 m
Avalanche Summary
Wind slabs will likely continue to be reactive on Friday.
There was a report of a natural avalanche cycle up to size 2 from wind loaded terrain in the south of the region on Tuesday.
There were a few explosives triggered size 2 avalanches reported near the southern boundary of the region on Sunday.
On Saturday, explosive control work near Ningunsaw (just outside the region) produced several wind slabs to size 2.5 and one size 3 deep persistent slab failing on weak facets near the base of the snowpack. Another reminder of the "low probability; high consequence" scenario that persistent slab problems often create.
Snowpack Summary
10-15 cm of new snow is expected between Thursday night and Friday afternoon with strong to extreme southwest winds. Fresh wind slabs will be forming in many areas, including at lower elevations.
20-30 cm of recent storm snow may sit on a weak layer of surface hoar that was recently buried at treeline and below treeline.
In the south of the region, another weak layer of surface hoar that was buried around the New Year has been reported down 50-70 cm in sheltered areas.
The lower snowpack has two crusts with potentially weak, faceted snow around them. Reports from the Smithers area suggest the upper crust is 70-140 cm below the surface and has shown signs of being possible to trigger from shallow areas. The deeper crust is near the bottom of the snowpack and is most likely to trigger from steep, rocky slopes, with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
- Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
- Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Wind slab formation has been extensive.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Fresh wind slabs are likely forming with some new snow and strong to extreme winds.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Triggering large avalanches on weaknesses in the lower snowpack remains a possibility. In some areas the concern is weak snow around crusts 70-140 cm deep, while in others it is weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack. Human triggering of these layers are most likely in steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 15th, 2021 4:00PM
