Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 2nd, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs, Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.
JSmith,
Avalanche Canada
Above freezing temperatures up high over night and into the day Thursday will continue to stress the snowpack. Consecutive hot days are increasing the likelihood of triggering large avalanches on a crust near the bottom of the snowpack.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.
Weather Forecast
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature +4 / Strong temperature inversion with above freezing air 2000-3500 m.
THURSDAY: Sunny / Light, southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +3 in AM with dropping temps in PM / Strong temperature inversion with above freezing air 2000-3500 m will dissipate in PM.
FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light to moderate, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature -3 / Freezing level 1000 m.
SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, west ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +8 / Strong temperature inversion returns with above freezing air 2000-3500 m.
Avalanche Summary
Check out this notable MIN report of numerous human triggered avalanches from Quartz Creek on Saturday. The buried layer of small surface hoar that caused this avalanche could still catch riders by surprise.
The hot weather up high has the potential to awaken the November crust and make it more sensitive to natural and human triggers which could result in large avalanches.
Data is very sparse in this region. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
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A very strong temperature inversion has created moist snow on all aspects at treeline and above on Wednesday. Around 5 cm of snow on Monday covered a layer of surface hoar found primarily at treeline and below. The strong southwest winds from last week created wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above. These wind slabs are sitting on a layer of small surface hoar in specific areas. This layer has been reported as "spotty" and is most likely to be present in sheltered areas. There is a crust from early November that is down approximately 50-75 cm. This layer has weak, sugary facets above and below it. It is most likely to be reactive to human triggers on south facing slopes and in shallow, rocky, snowpack areas in the alpine.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
- Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
- If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
The hot weather up high over the next couple days may awaken this layer. Cornice falls, or smaller avalanches are especially likely to trigger a large avalanche on this layer. This layer is most likely to be reactive to human triggers on south facing slopes and in shallow, rocky, snowpack areas in the alpine.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Wet
Things are looking HOT up high for the next couple days. Naturally triggered wet loose avalanches are possible on all aspects and especially likely on solar aspects.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
Lingering wind slabs may remain surprisingly reactive to human triggers in areas where they are sitting on top of a layer of small surface hoar.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 3rd, 2020 4:00PM
