Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 23rd, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Deep Persistent Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
Mikey,
Avalanche Canada
Very little is changing in the snowpack, which unfortunately requires a disciplined approach. Despite the MODERATE hazard rating, conservative terrain selection is still critical due to the deeply buried weak layers.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
No new observed or reported today.
Snowpack Summary
A very thin crust exists just below the snow surface, but thankfully this crust disappears above 2000m. A buried layer of surface hoar down 15 to 30cm at tree line is tightening up but still producing shears. The main concern in the snowpack is the persistent moderate shears failing down 70 to 80cm in the mid-November facets. The lower half of the snowpack remains very weak, and any avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack will likely step down to the lower weaknesses. Thin and rocky areas are of particular concern for triggering the deeper weak layers. Below 2100m the snowpack does not support the weight of a skier if you leave an established skin track.
Weather Summary
Mostly cloudy with light flurries, high temperature of -8c. Winds are expected to be moderate from the NW.
WednesdayAlso cloudy with light flurries. Temperature will climb to -6 in the alpine and winds will be moderate from the NW.
ThursdayThursday or Friday might be a transition day. There is a little glimmer of snow in the forecast for Friday but this is likely to arrive with the polar vortex. By the way, that means it might be really cold.....
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Snowpack tests continue to indicate that human triggering of the deeper weak layers is a real possibility. Shallow rocky areas are particularly susceptible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to step down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack. Pay close attention at treeline where this layer is more commonly found.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 25th, 2023 4:00PM
