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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 2nd, 2014–Apr 3rd, 2014
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Avalanche hazard will likely increase throughout the day, be sure your plans allow for a safe retreat from the mountains.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A series of relatively weak systems should deliver daily precipitation through the weekend. There is potential for a very potent storm early next week, but its still way too early to count on.Wednesday Night: Precipitation: 2:7mm - 3:10cmThursday: Freezing Level: 700m - 1100m; Precipitation: 2:10mm - 2:15cm; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, S/SW | Ridgetop: Strong, SWFriday: Freezing Level: 800m - 1200m Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, WSaturday: Freezing Level: 1100m - 1400m; Precipitation: 1:8mm - 2:13cm; Wind: Treeline: Light, S | Ridgetop: Strong, SW

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday there was one report of a remotely triggered size 2 wind slab avalanche on a NE facing aspect at 1500m. This location had previously slid on the early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo. Isolated loose wet avalanches to size 1.5 were also reported from steep southerly terrain.On Monday. A large rock fall event initiated a size 3.5 avalanche that failed on the early February persistent weak layer. Several smaller loose snow avalanches to size 2 were running in the recent storm snow on steep solar aspects too.

Snowpack Summary

It's starting to feel like spring in the NW. Valley temps are creeping into the double digits during the day, and there are reports of the top 15 cm of the snowpack becoming moist during daytime heating.The last significant shot of snow was on March 27th, 10 - 15 fell on March 30th. This new snow rests on top of a haggard old surface composed of old wind slab, melt freeze crust, and faceted old snow. Ongoing melt freeze cycles will likely help to heal any surface instabilities.The early March layer can be found down 75 - 100cm and is composed of facets/surface hoar on shady aspects and facets/crust on southerly aspects. I suspect this layer has been the culprit in the human triggered avalanches from March 27/28 that are being reported on the Balktalk Facebook Page.The early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is down 150 - 200cm, and I suspect it's gone mostly dormant for now.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow accompanied by strong wind should result in new slabs being formed on top of surface hoar and crusts beginning Wednesday night. I expect these touchy slabs will become more and more problematic as the day goes on Thursday.
Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.>Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Two buried weak layers exist in the snowpack. These weak layers could be activated by cornice fall, a smaller surface avalanche in motion, or a rider finding the sweet spot, which would be most likely in steep rocky terrain.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried facets and surface hoar.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 7