Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Sunday: Expect a dry day, with clouds building late in the day. Winds remain light southerly with freezing levels reaching 1800m. Monday: Mixed skies should give way to mostly cloudy conditions and a chance of flurries later in the day and freezing levels reaching 1500m. Winds continue southerly and remain light. Tuesday: Continued light precipitation overnight as freezing levels climb to 1400m. Winds increase to strong southerlies by the afternoon.

Isolated loose wet avalanches from daytime heating have been reported. There was also 2 recent large natural avalanches reported; a size 3.0 from a northeast aspect in the Chilcotin area and a size 4.0 from a south aspect in the west side of the Duffey Lakes area.

The warm temperatures have brought us into a spring melt freeze cycle with the surface snow softening with daytime warming on solar aspects then crusting overnight as temperatures dip back below freezing. Large cornices loom in at ridgecrest. Recent storm snow varies significantly throughout the region with southeast areas (Coquihalla) receiving up to 60cm of new snow, while places like the Duffey Lake have seen considerably less. Expect wind slabs to be deep in heavy snowfall areas and thin in other areas. Crusts down around 60cm can be found on solar aspects in the Duffey Lake, Chilcotin, and down closer to 100cm in the Coquihalla. Deep, persistent weak layers buried in early February are variable in distribution across the region but remain a key concern. In recent snowpack analysis this layer remains well preserved as surface hoar on north aspects and is a suncrust, facet combo on solar aspects. On both aspects we have reports of clean sudden planar shears at an average depth of 150cm. Although the likelihood of triggering this layer has decreased, the potential for surprisingly large avalanches remains.