Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 30th, 2015 10:02AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Wet and Wind Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Solar radiation and warm alpine temperatures may increase the Avalanche Danger over the next few days.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The current ridge of high pressure will persist for the foreseeable future bringing clear skies for the forecast period. Ridgetop winds will remain mainly light to moderate from the south. An inversion is forecast for all 3 days with above-freezing temperatures expected in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. With solar radiation and warmer alpine temperatures forecast for the next few days, loose wet avalanches may occur on steep, sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

About 10-20cm of low-density snow fell between last Saturday and Monday. In exposed, high elevation terrain, moderate winds may have shifted these accumulations into soft wind slabs in the immediate lee of ridge crests. Due to continued cool temperatures, these wind slabs may have taken more time than usual to settle and gain strength. Solar radiation has also come into play, and depending on the time of day, steep solar aspects may be moist or refrozen. Recent field reports suggest deeper snowpack weaknesses have now gained considerable strength, and the mid and lower snowpack are considered to be generally strong and well-settled.

Problems

Loose Wet

Temperature inversions and solar radiation forecast for the next few days will promote loose wet avalanche activity, especially on steep, sun-exposed slopes at higher elevations.

Be alert to conditions that change with aspect, elevation and time of day.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

In most areas, recently formed wind slabs have likely gained strength. That said, I'd remain cautious in high elevation lee terrain where small wind slabs may still be sensitive to human triggering.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Dec 31st, 2015 2:00PM