Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Saturday: 5-15 cm snow. Moderate south-easterly winds. Alpine temperature near -10. Sunday: 5-10 cm snow. Moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -7.Monday: 15-20 cm snow. Moderate to strong south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -2.More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle was observed on Wednesday, with some natural activity continuing on Thursday. Avalanches up to size 4 were reported from all aspects and elevations, many failing on persistent weak layers down 1 m or more. The theme on Thursday was still a very touchy snowpack, with numerous avalanches triggered by snow cats, remote triggers, explosives, helicopters and people.Natural avalanche activity has now slowed, but the potential for human-triggering of surprisingly large avalanches remains elevated.

70 to 100 cm of storm snow sits on a layer of crust and/or surface hoar from mid-January. The crust is widespread, with the possible exception of high elevation north aspects. The mid-January surface hoar is 5 to 20 mm in size and is likely present at all elevation bands. The recent storm snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs in lee features at treeline and alpine elevations and in open areas below treeline.Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is buried 70 to 110 cm deep. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and a sun crust on steep solar aspects and is present at all elevation bands. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden fracture characters with moderate loads and high propagation potential, as well as other signs of instability such as whumpfs, cracking and avalanches. Yet another persistent weak layer buried mid-December is 100 to 150 cm deep and consists of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination. It is most problematic at and below tree line.A rain crust buried in November is 150 to 200 cm deep. While generally considered dormant, occasional activity has shown that it may react where it is less deeply buried.