Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Mt Hood.
Watch for wet surface snow on steep solar slopes that could lead to small loose wet avalanches. Also, watch for potentially weakening cornices with daytime warming and sunshine.
Detailed Forecast
Tuesday should be another warm and at least initially sunny day. Most areas do not have sufficient loose surface snow to become wet and easily available for wet snow avalanches. However, in isolated areas the best window for small wet loose avalanches on steeper solar slopes should occur in the late morning or mid-day before increasing high clouds and SW winds diminish the already small likelihood.Â
Cornices are not listed as an expected problem, but may begin to weaken during the warmest part of the day. It's the time of year to be extra aware of the hazards cornices pose travelling along or below ridgelines.Â
Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow (new or existing) to pose an avalanche hazard.
Snowpack Discussion
The latest snowfall in the Cascades is becoming a fading memory, occurring near the end of February when about 4-10 inches fell near and above treeline at Mt Hood. This storm was followed by strong northeast winds at Mt Hood. The Meadows patrol reported that the winds were so strong to have blasted the shallow surface snow to who knows where, rather than building new wind slab layers.
Sunny and gradually warmer weather has been seen the first third of March helping to stabilize isolated wind slab from the end of February and further consolidate the snowpack. Recent reports throughout the Cascades generally indicate hard or firm melt-freeze crusts or stable old snow still preserved on non-solar aspects at elevation. There was almost no snowfall in January and February and none so far in March. The snowpack at lower elevations is meager and way below normal. There have not been any reports of significant avalanches for a long time.Â
The mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 1