Avalanche Forecast

Good

An "almost pineapple" weather pattern is setup across the province, and while the neighboring regions to the north & west receive the full brunt of the firehouse the Purcells will likely see a more modest garden house amount. The latest model run show the Purcells receiving a bit more moisture than originally expected with slightly lower Freezing Levels (FZLVL). SAT: FZLVL will be on the rise, climbing to 1700 m by 4:00 pm. 11.7 SWE forecast, expect around 15 cm of snow above 1700m, rain below. 2km wind: West, Mod increasing to upper end of Mod throughout the day. SAT NIGHT: FZLVL drops to 1000m overnight. SUN: FZLVL near 1800m most of the day. 14.3mm SWE expected. MON: FRLVL slowly lowers throughout the day. 3.1mm SWE forecast. Winds initially Mod SW Tapering to Light W late in the day.

Natural size 2.5, failing on mid Feb. SH in the north of the region. A few different remote triggered avalanches to size 1.5 on steep south facing slopes in the south of the region.

A cohesive slab continues to settle over the mid-February surface hoar, which is generally down in the 40-55cm range. Recent reports include whumpfing and cracking, and moderate but sudden compression test results. This persistent weakness is susceptible to remote triggering and has the ability to propagate in low angled terrain, and the overlying slab structure creates the potential for step-down avalanches. Basal facets have only been reactive on steep, shallow, and rocky slopes, but operators continue to monitor this layer in tests. Triggering this deep persistent weak layer is unlikely, but shallow snowpack areas or shallow weak areas adjacent to deeper wind loaded slopes are the most suspect locations.