Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Strong southwest winds overnight combined with 15-20 cm of new snow and freezing levels around 1200 metres. Strong southwest winds on Wednesday with another 5-8 cm of new snow and freezing levels around 1400 metres. Light winds on Thursday with 3-5 cm of new snow and freezing levels dropping to 700 metres. Mix of sun and cloud on Friday with light winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms.

Storm slabs are developing with loading from new snow and wind. I expect this will result in a direct action cycle of storm slab avalanches. As the load increases over the next few days we will be looking closely at persistent weak layers and discussing the likelihood of these layers failing under the new load of storm snow combined with wind and warm temperatures.

New storm slabs are developing due to loading from new snow and wind. These storm slabs are sitting on variable old surfaces including surface hoar and wind slabs that developed during the recent cold and clear weather. Reports also exist of a sun crust that formed on steep solar aspects. Below the old surface, up to 30 cm of low density snow fell last week, that was transported by shifting winds resulting in wind slabs on several aspects. The mid-December facet/surface hoar persistent weakness can be found buried 70-120 cm deep and is generally considered dormant. However, we are still receiving occasional reports of sudden results in snowpack tests, suggesting that it has to potential to propagate into a large avalanche if triggered, particularly in shallow spots where this layer is closer to the snow surface. The lower snowpack is well bonded and features a thick rain crust near the ground.