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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 10th, 2019–Dec 11th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Wind slabs and persistent slabs have surprised a number of people recently, especially on S'ly aspects where they overlay a crust. Give steep southern slopes respect!

Weather Forecast

A mix of sun and cloud today, alpine high of -4*C with light SW winds and fzl rising to 1200m. Wednesday brings light flurries and light SW winds with an alpine high of -7*C. Thursday a cold front passes through the area, delivering 10cm of snow, moderate SW winds, and an alpine high of -5*C.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate S-SW winds have created wind slabs in lee alpine features. 40cm of storm snow (since Dec. 5th) overlies surface hoar in some locations TL and BTL, and is concealing evidence of the recent cycle of natural avalanches. The November 23rd surface hoar/crust/facet layer is buried 80-100+cm and remains reactive in stability tests.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has tapered off, but observations of several human triggered avalanches to sz 2 were made yesterday. A skier kicked off a sz 2 wind slab from a steep, S-facing alpine start zone on Tupper. Another sz 2-2.5 was reported from SE slopes on Ursus Major at around 2500m elevation. Both slabs likely failed on a crust.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The November 23rd layer is down 80-100+cm and consists of surface hoar at treeline and below, and a crust on steep solar aspects into the alpine.

  • Evaluate terrain features by digging and testing on adjacent, safe slopes.
  • The storm slab may be more sensitive to human triggering on solar aspects where it sits on a crust

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Wind Slabs

Recent periods of moderate wind have potentially built wind slabs in immediate lees. Keep an eye out for these as you transition into exposed alpine terrain.

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee and cross-loaded areas. Recent wind loading has created new wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2