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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 18th, 2018–Nov 19th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Challenging valley bottom access/egress is leading everyone into the same areas. Beware of riders above and below you and always be on the look out for the early season Selkirk snow sharks just below the surface.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy today with periods of sunshine as the ridge of high pressure prevents any precipitation pushing inland. Winds will be light from the West with an alpine high of -4 and a freezing level up to 1400m. Expect temps to rise slightly over the next few days with the return of the snow forecasted for Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of storm snow overlies surface hoar or a suncrust that has been found above 1900m up Connaught drainage and in the Asulkan hut area. Deeper in the snowpack is the October melt freeze crust. Snow depths vary from 60cm at Rogers Pass, to 150-170cm in alpine areas.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous sz 2-3 slab avalanches from N and S alpine aspects on Macdonald and Tupper were observed. These ran during the height of the storm on Nov 15th, with several reaching the valley bottom.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

45cm of storm snow has been redistributed by moderate Southerly winds and rests on buried surface hoar on northerly aspects and a suncrust on solar aspects. Human triggering is possible.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created pockets of wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

The late October crust sits near the bottom of the snowpack and is producing sudden planar and sudden collapse results. Assess this layer before committing to a line. At higher elevations a buried facet layer exists from the September snow.
If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3