Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 12th, 2019 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Despite a slight improvement in the hazard level, the weak and shallow snowpack deserves vigilance. Dig into the snowpack frequently to assist with terrain decisions.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Sunday should be a relatively mild day with temperatures near -5 in the Alpine and moderate winds from the West. There is no new snow n the forecast until at least Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.0 to 2.5 naturally triggered slab was observed on the East aspect of Snow Peak at approximately 2700m. This avalanche occurred in the past 24hrs and possibly triggered by a cornice failure.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack settled a bit yesterday with the warm temperatures. Wind slabs are widespread in the Alpine and at Treeline. The depth and sensitivity of these slabs is widely variable across the forecast region, and it is worth digging into the snowpack often to evaluate this avalanche problem. The bottom half of the snowpack is very weak consisting primarily of facets. This condition will persist over the long term, which means that any avalanche that occurs could step down to these weak basal layers causing a very large avalanche.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are pretty much everywhere in the Alpine and only slightly less common at Treeline. Steep and unsupported terrain will be places to watch for potential human triggering.

Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Any avalanche has the potential to trigger the basal facets, resulting in large avalanches.

Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Jan 13th, 2019 2:00PM