Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 18th, 2016–Jan 21st, 2016

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Forecasters are keeping a keen eye out for activity on a weak layer buried in the upper snowpack, and you should too! Let us, and everyone else know if you see anything interesting: submit to the Mountain Information Network, at www.avalanche.ca.

Weather Forecast

Generally little change from our current weather through the next three days (with one exception...read on) ... sun/cloud to mainly cloudy, Moderate to Strong W-SW winds, and mild temperatures. Wednesday morning is the exception... current forecasts predict anywhere from 2-10cm of snowfall, along with a temporary drop in windspeed and temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of recent snowfall has made for great skiing below treeline. Strong SW-W winds have redistributed this to form Wind slabs on lee / cross loaded slopes. Down 30-45cm lies a weak layer of Facets and large Surface Hoar on shady aspects, or 1-2cm of sun crust on solar aspects. The new snow appears to be bonding well to this layer below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

Several Natural Wind Slab and Loose Dry avalanches were observed from N and E aspects in the Alpine during the past 36 hours, upto Size 1.5. New glide cracks have been noted in alpine terrain on the South aspect of Mt Carthew, adjacent to exposed rocks.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

These Wind Slabs are widespread, but generally stubborn at treeline. However, they may be touchy and propagate widely where they sit directly on a weak layer of suncrust/facets/surface hoar buried during early January. Avoid obviously loaded slopes.

Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.Avoid steep lee and cross-loaded features

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2