Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A ridge of high pressure should keep the NW Inland mainly dry on Wednesday. A mix of sun and cloud is expected with freezing levels at valley bottom and moderate alpine winds from the SW-W. On Thursday, sub-tropical moisture will mix with arctic air resulting in moderate snowfall. Freezing levels should remain at valley bottom and alpine winds will become strong-to-extreme. Conditions on Friday should be much the same with moderate-to-heavy snowfall, valley bottom freezing levels, and strong-to-extreme winds.

On Monday, natural and human-triggered avalanches size 1 to 1.5 were reported in the south of the region. These were 20-30cm thick in sheltered areas and 30cm+ in wind loaded features. Sluffing from steep terrain was also reported. On Wednesday, natural avalanches are possible on sun exposed slopes or recently wind-loaded features. Skier-triggering is likely in wind loaded features and areas where the recent snowfall is settling into a cohesive slab.

20-30cm of new snow has fallen in the last couple days. Strong winds have redistributed this snow in exposed terrain forming winds slabs in leeward features and stripping exposed slopes. The late-January crust is typically down 60-80cm in the south of the region and probably around half this depth in the north. Tests are indicating that this interface is generally well bonded but isolated avalanches have been reported to have released on this layer recently. The mid-January rain crust and/or surface hoar layer is down over 1m in the south and has generally become inactive. It may still be a concern in thinner snowpack areas, at higher elevations, and in the far north of the region. Near the base of the snowpack is a crust-facet combination buried in November. This deep persistent weakness was recently reactive and may still be touchy in the far north of the region. Wherever you are, I'd be cautious of this deep and potentially destructive layer. Possible triggers include thin spot triggering in high elevation terrain, a cornice fall, or a smaller avalanche stepping down.