Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

The weekend clearing was short lived as there's another storm on the doorstep ....

Monday Overnight: Snow starting late in the day and intensifying overnight with 10 to 15 cm expected. Unsurprisingly it'll come with strong southwest winds and warming temperatures all the way to around -10 C. 

Tuesday: Very similar to Monday with another 10 cm of snow, strong southwest winds gradually easing, and slight warming to around -5 C.

Wednesday: Continued unsettled weather with more new snow, more moderate to strong southwest wind, and continued moderate temperatures around -5 C. 

Thursday: Mix of sun and clouds, flurries or light snow, temperatures start to cool.

Last weeks storm reports include wind-loading the Racine paths such that avalanche hazard (and avalanches) closed the highway. The MIN has photos of a size three natural avalanche on Log Cabin. Otherwise only a few reports of smaller wind slabs.

The wind has shifted direction several times the past week; however, wind transport was predominantly driven by the southwest wind: big pillows of wind slab formed on north and east facing features. As expected wind scoured slopes abound above treeline with sastrugi and variations on that theme. More surprising good powder and riding was found on lee or more wind protected / sheltered areas.

Snow depths at White Pass increased last week and have now settled in around 150 cm at our wind protected Fraser study plot. Deeper locations (higher terrain west of the highway) have more than 200 cm. It's reasonable to expect a thin snowpack composed mainly of sugary facets in the Wheaton Valley, and thinner wind-scoured alpine areas.

Here's a non-technical snowprofile from the Fraser study plot from the end of January.

• Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
• If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.