Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

The heaviest precipitation for this storm didn't arrive as forecasted on Friday, and has been pushed back to Friday night. Expect snowfall amounts to vary greatly across the region, with highest amounts falling in the area around Kitimat, and possibly as far north as Terrace.

Friday Night: Cloudy. 15-20 cm of snow expected. Possibly 30 cm or more in the south of the region. Strong to extreme southwest wind. Freezing level around 1000 m. 

Saturday: Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest wind, trending to strong through the day. Freezing level around 800 m. 

Sunday: Cloudy. 2-10 cm of snow expected overnight, and another 10-20 through the day. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations, possibly above 100 km/h. Freezing level around 1000 m. 

Monday: Partly cloudy. 2-10 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Moderate west wind, trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level falling to around 500 m.

On Friday, a few professional operations across the region reported large natural and explosive triggered loose wet avalanches at and below treeline as temperatures increased.

On Thursday, east of Port Essington, a professional operation reported several loose wet and wet slab avalanches up to size 2.5, below 1000 m on southeast aspects.

Also, a professional operation north of Bear Pass reported two remotely triggered avalanches in recent storm snow, size 1.5-2. These were on north through southeast aspects around treeline. They were reported to have failed on a weak layer of facets that was buried on January 8.

Remember that a lack of observed avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have conditions information, or even just good vibes and good photos to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). 

By the end of the day on Saturday, expect storm totals to reach 25-45 cm. Strong to extreme southwest winds are potentially increasing the reactivity of storm slabs in lee features. 

Terrain below 1000 m that sees moderate to heavy rainfall could become more avalanche prone due to loose-wet avalanches or an upside down upper snowpack. 

50-100 cm below the snow surface, Faceting from the prolonged cold temperatures may increase the chance of a storm slab in motion stepping down to the previous storm interface.  

The early December rain crust is up to 10 cm thick, down 100-200 cm in the snowpack, and exists to an average of 1400 m in elevation. While this layer had generally gone dormant in the region through the cold period, it still has the possibility of waking up and will be tested this week with the forecast warming event and ongoing snow accumulation. 

Extra caution is necessary while the snowpack undergoes substantial warming after a prolonged period of cold conditions. 

• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
• Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.