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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 23rd, 2019–Nov 24th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

A natural cycle of large avalanches is expected Saturday night/Sunday morning as a result of the incoming storm.

The new Winter Permit System is in effect. Closures are possible Sunday.

A permit is required to enter restricted areas when they are open.

Weather Forecast

A frontal system passing through BC from the NW will bring strong winds and snowfall to our area through the weekend. 

Today: Flurries (6cm). Treeline High -4 C. Ridge wind mod SW, Frzlvl 1400m.

Tonight: Snow (22cm). TL Low -7 C. Wind mod SW (gusting extreme).

Sunday: Flurries (5 cm). TL High -7 C. Wind light W (gusting strong). Frzlvl 1000m.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow will likely overload previous surfaces of wind effect and suncrusts at upper elevations, and surface hoar up to 20mm in the valley bottoms. This new snow may also trigger the 35-50cm persistent slab that sits on a crust/surface hoar/stellar layer. The lower snowpack consists of several melt-freeze crusts from late October.

Avalanche Summary

Human-triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from Little Sifton, Balu Pass and the Asulkan Hut early in the week. The Balu Pass avalanche buried the person to their neck and gear was lost. Numerous natural avalanches to size 2.5-3 were observed from The Dome, Tupper, MacDonald, and Cheops during the storm last Sunday morning.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

The persistent slab sits atop a crust/surface hoar/stellar layer. Easy to moderate test results and recent reports of large whumphfs in the alpine, indicate these remain sensitive to triggering by human loads.

  • Minimize exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of an avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Snowfall late in the day may be heavy enough to build storm slabs before night fall. By Sunday these will be a significant problem.

  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5