Avalanche Forecast

Fair

A few cm snow are forecast for Friday night. A second pulse of snow (around 5 cm) is due on Sunday. Freezing level is at valley floor during the nights and rising to around 800 m by day. Winds are generally light for the next three days.

A series of alarming large remotely-triggered avalanches was reported over the last few days. On Wednesday, a size 3 slab was observed on an east aspect at 2200 m. This may have been remotely triggered by a skier. It started in the upper (January) persistent weak layer and stepped down to the deeper (December) weakness. On Tuesday, two persistent slabs up to size 2.5 were triggered remotely in the alpine. There was also a natural size 3.5 avalanche on an east aspect that was estimated to be about 200 cm deep and may also have been the mid-December layer.

A melt-freeze crust exists up to around 2300 m, overlying moist snow. At higher elevations the surface is heavily wind affected. The depth of the mid-January surface hoar is highly variable across the region and it may have been destroyed by warmth at lower elevations. Where it does exist it can be found between 20 and 50 cm below the surface. The mid-December surface hoar layer lies below a strong mid-pack down 60 to 120cm. Both of these persistent layers have been reactive recently. The mid-November weak layer of crusts and facets can still be found near the bottom of the snowpack. It has been unreactive lately.