Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

It looks like the Interior Mountains will see snow for Christmas, as a stream of moisture spreads from North – South Wednesday afternoon and overnight into Thursday. I'm uncertain with timing, however most model runs are agreeing with precipitation amounts.Christmas Day: Snow amounts 5-10 cm. Alpine temperatures -6. Ridgetop winds moderate from the SW.Thursday: Cloudy with some sunny breaks. Alpine temperatures -2. Ridgetop winds light-moderate from the South. Freezing levels rising to 1600 m. Friday: Snow amounts tapering up to 8 cm. Alpine temperatures near -4. Freezing levels 1000 m. Special Notice: Our radar has just picked-up what appears to be a flying sleigh. Our forecasters believe the sleigh belongs to Santa as it is being pulled by at least 8 reindeer. The sleigh is now in the far north of the province at the 2000m elevation and is currently headed south. More information will be posted as it becomes available.

The deep persistent slab problem continues to be reactive with larger triggers like explosives up to size 2. I suspect this can also still be triggered under the weight of a skier or rider, especially from thinner snowpack areas, or thin spot trigger points  like rocky outcrops. Additionally on Monday a natural size 2 avalanche was reportedly seen from a NE aspect at 2300 m.

Up to 20 cm of new storm snow covers stiff, dense wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline. Average snowpack depths at treeline elevations are 100-130 cm. In the upper 80 cm of the snowpack a couple persistent weak layers exist, comprising of surface hoar and a facet/ crust combo. This interface has produced variable results with snowpack tests, and operators are keeping a close eye on them as the load above increases and/or a slab develops.A bigger concern, especially in the Northern part of the region where the snowpack is thinner and more variable is weak faceted and depth hoar crystals combined with a crust from early October. This is now down around 80-120 cm. This deep persistent weakness may be stubborn to trigger, especially in deeper snowpack areas, but the sensitivity to triggers likely increases in shallower locations, especially on steep, convex, north-facing slopes.